Improved seasonal forecast using ozone hole variability?

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Improved seasonal forecast using ozone hole variability?

[1] Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change has been partly attributed to Antarctic ozone depletion in the literatures. Here we show that the ozone hole has affected not only the long-term climate change but also the interannual variability of SH surface climate. A significant negative correlation is observed between September ozone concentration and the October southern annular mode index, res...

متن کامل

Improved tropical modes of variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast

A new stochastic multi-cloud model (SMCM) convective parametrization, which mimics the interactions at sub-grid scales of multiple cloud types, is incorporated into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model (referred to as CFSsmcm hereafter) in lieu of the pre-existing simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) cumulus scheme. A detailed ana...

متن کامل

S4CAST seasonal forecast model

Introduction Conclusions References

متن کامل

Accounting seasonal nonstationarity in time series models for short-term ozone level forecast

Due to the nonlinear feature of a ozone process, regression based models such as the autoregressive models with an exogenous vector process (ARX) suffer from persistent diurnal behaviors in residuals that cause systematic over-predictions and under-predictions and fail to make accurate multi-step forecasts. In this article we present a simple class of the functional coefficient ARX (FARX) model...

متن کامل

Weather Derivatives and Seasonal Forecast

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) seasonal forecast in the temperature process so that conditional means and conditional variances of both the temperature and the CDD (Cooling Degree Day) may be redetermined in accordance with the seasonal forecasting probabilities. Under the Gaussian property of the underlying process, the prices of the CDD options...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters

سال: 2013

ISSN: 0094-8276

DOI: 10.1002/2013gl057731